[EXTERNAL] A simple probabilistic model for COVID-19

[Barraclough, Dominic (ext. 414)]

Hi Pierre,

I'm interested in your Lea project and notice it is in a mercurial repo on bitbucket, what are your plans for the repo given that bitbucket are dropping support for mercurial repos in the summer?

https://bitbucket.org/blog/sunsetting-mercurial-support-in-bitbucket
[https://rlmr51w5rw3n7zek1m7tizzg-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/bitbucket-logo-gradient-blue@2x.png]<https://bitbucket.org/blog/sunsetting-mercurial-support-in-bitbucket>
Sunsetting Mercurial support in Bitbucket - Bitbucket<https://bitbucket.org/blog/sunsetting-mercurial-support-in-bitbucket>
The version control software market has evolved a lot since Bitbucket began in 2008. When we launched, centralized version control was the norm and we only supported Mercurial repos.
bitbucket.org


Dominic
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Subject: [EXTERNAL] A simple probabilistic model for COVID-19

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Hi!

I've created a Jupyter notebook that presents a simple probabilistic model
linking diseases (cold, flu, COVID-19) to symptoms (fever, cough):

http://mybinder.org/v2/gh/piedenis/lea_mini_tutorials/master?filepath=Lea_CO
VID19.ipynb

Assuming that this model is accurate (which is probably not!), it allows you
to answer questions like:

                What is the probability of having COVID-19 in the occurrence
of fever but without cough?

This model is programmed in Python, using Lea, a package dedicated to
probabilistic programming (PP).

Note that the goal is to let you discover PP and Bayesian reasoning, not to
provide you usable/trustable figures (even if the calculations are plainly
correct).

Take care of you!

Pierre Denis



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