A simple probabilistic model for COVID-19

[pie.denis at skynet.be]

Hi!

I've created a Jupyter notebook that presents a simple probabilistic model
linking diseases (cold, flu, COVID-19) to symptoms (fever, cough):

http://mybinder.org/v2/gh/piedenis/lea_mini_tutorials/master?filepath=Lea_CO
VID19.ipynb

Assuming that this model is accurate (which is probably not!), it allows you
to answer questions like:

                What is the probability of having COVID-19 in the occurrence
of fever but without cough?

This model is programmed in Python, using Lea, a package dedicated to
probabilistic programming (PP).

Note that the goal is to let you discover PP and Bayesian reasoning, not to
provide you usable/trustable figures (even if the calculations are plainly
correct).

Take care of you!

Pierre Denis