Testing random

[Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn]

random832 at fastmail.us wrote:

> On Sun, Jun 7, 2015, at 15:29, Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn wrote:
>> Jussi Piitulainen wrote:
>> > Thomas 'PointedEars' Lahn writes:
>> >>   8 3 6 3 1 2 6 8 2 1 6.
>> > 
>> > There are more than four hundred thousand ways to get those numbers in
>> > some order.
>> > 
>> > (11! / 2! / 2! / 2! / 3! / 2! = 415800)
>> Fallacy.  Order is irrelevant here.
> 
> Huh? The fact that order is irrelevant is exactly _why_ what he said
> _is_ relevant.

No.  AISB, those sequences all have the same probability:

<http://www.teacherlink.org/content/math/interactive/probability/numbersense/misconceptions/representativeness.html>
<http://www.teacherlink.org/content/math/interactive/probability/numbersense/misconceptions/recency.html>

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PointedEars

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