AI and cognitive psychology rant (getting more and more OT - tell me if I should shut up)

[Alex Martelli]

Andrew Dalke wrote:

> Alex:
>> So, imperfect shuffling is not simulated in any computer dealer or
> analysis
>> program that I know of
> 
> Since most bridge playing is not in tournament play or other places which
> use randomize shuffles, wouldn't people who want an edge in "friendly"
> play like ways to maximize the odds of winning?

I'm not sure people in such non-intensely-competitive settings would
care enough, but I guess if there was money at stake they might.


> That link I mentioned,
>  http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/topics/winning_number.html
> suggests that doing so is strongly frowned upon

The laws and proprieties of (non-duplicate) contract bridge:

http://www.math.auc.dk/~nwp/bridge/laws/rlaws.html

specify that the deck should be thoroughly shuffled, and a new
shuffle may be demanded by any player (presumably if he or she
does not consider the previous shuffle thorough enough).  Taking
any advantage from an infraction by one's own side is condemned,
so if an insufficient shuffle had been performed by the player
thereafter proceeding to take advantage, or his/her partner, that
would indeed be improper.  Taking advantage of violations by the
opponents, however, is acceptable: there is nothing in the laws
and properties (which tend to be rather exhaustive) that I can see
as condemning a player for noticing and taking advantage of an
imperfect shuffle by an opponent.

> Perhaps there's underground literature describing how to take
> advantage of this?  :)

There's an old superstition that "the Queen always lies over the
Jack" and many have hypothesized that this belief may come from
imperfect shuffles after, on the previous deal, the Q has been
played right over the J, a common occurrence in play (but not
really all that much more common than, say, the K being played
right over the Q, IMHO).  I am not aware of any scientific study
of such issues ever having been published (and there are quite a
few non-mainstream bridge books among the 1000 or so I own).


Alex